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Sunday, March 4, 2018

OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2018

With the addition of a younger and more diverse set of voters in the Academy, and with the various social movements happening right now, this may be a very unpredictable year. The Oscars are much more inclusive and much less determined by a set of older white men, so some might argue that anything is possible tonight. My predictions, however, are based on what I'd consider more of the "old formula," which means that I've predicted that the winners will be those begging for trophies and by historical standards would normally win. After this year though, I may have to recalibrate. Let the fun begin!


BEST PICTURE










Nominees: 
  • Call Me by Your Name
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Post
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


WILL WIN: The Shape of Water

COULD WIN: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

DARK HORSE: Get Out

SHOULD WIN: Call Me by Your Name (my personal favorite)


NOTE: This is the most unsure I’ve been about Best Picture. I’ve listed the two movies that have the best chance of winning ("will win" and "could win"), but I don’t think that either of them should win. Get Outmight have a chance, and will likely be the most memorable movie this year, but my favorite was Call Me by Your Name.


BEST ACTOR 
Nominees:
  • Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
  • Timothee Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name
  • Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
  • Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.
  • Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour


WILL WIN: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

COULD WIN: Timothee Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name

SHOULD WIN: Timothee Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name 


BEST ACTRESS 
Nominees: 
  • Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
  • Meryl Streep - The Post
  • Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird 

WILL WIN: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

COULD WIN: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

SHOULD WIN: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
  • Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
  • Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
  • Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water


WILL WIN: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

COULD WIN: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

SHOULD WIN: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
Nominees:
  • Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread
  • Allison Janney - I, Tonya
  • Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
  • Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
  • Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

WILL WIN: Allison Janney - I, Tonya

COULD WIN: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

SHOULD WIN: Allison Janney - I, Tonya


BEST DIRECTOR:
Nominees:
  • Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
  • Jordan Peele - Get Out
  • Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
  • Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
  • Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread

WILL WIN: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water

COULD WIN: Jordan Peele - Get Out

SHOULD WIN: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 
Nominees:
  • Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor - The Shape of Water
  • Jordan Peele - Get Out
  • Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
  • Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani - The Big Sick
  • Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

WILL WIN: Jordan Peele - Get Out

COULD WIN: Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

DARK HORSE: Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird 

SHOULD WIN: Jordan Peele - Get Out / Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird 

NOTE: This is another very difficult category, as it is possible for any of these three to win. Hell, even The Shape of Water could win here and it wouldn't be totally insane. This is usually my favorite category, as the winner is usually one of my top favorites of the year. By that standard, I choose Lady Bird or Get Out.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
  • Aaron Sorkin - Molly's Game
  • James Ivory - Call Me by Your Name
  • Scott Frank, James Mangold & Michael Green - Logan
  • Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber - The Disaster Artist
  • Dee Rees & Virgil Williams - Mudbound

WILL WIN: James Ivory - Call Me by Your Name

COULD WIN: Dee Rees & Virgil Williams - Mudbound

SHOULD WIN: James Ivory - Call Me by Your Name

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