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Sunday, February 26, 2017


Most people I've talked to expect this year's Academy Awards to be pretty predictable. La La Land, with 14 nominations, is tied for the most nods in Oscar history. It would need 11 wins to tie with Titanic, Ben-Hur and Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King for the most trophies ever. Though this may be a tall order, many believe that La La Land is the favorite in many of the major categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Music (Score and Song), Best Cinematography, Best Editing and for other technical awards. But all I have to say is this: remember Boyhood. Though Boyhood didn't have quite the tally of nominations that La La Land has, it was the favorite of just about everyone to win the major awards in 2015. But Birdman took home the Oscar for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay (though Michael Keaton lost for Best Actor, which was also a bit of an upset after the award went to Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything). My point? Upsets happen. And in a year with so many great talents, as well as strong powers at play in the political/personal arena, I'd suggest three words of caution: expect the unexpected.

Though La La Land is undoubtedly the favorite this year, 2016 also was possibly the strongest year ever for diversity in film. And, according to many, 2016 was the year of Moonlight. According to Metacritic, Moonlight was the best-reviewed movie of last year. But that's not all. After two consecutive years of #OscarsSoWhite, there were more than 20 nominations in various categories for films with non-white main characters including Moonlight, which were Fences, Hidden Figures, Loving, and Lion. Also, 2016 did not exist in a vacuum. Outside of the immense talent from diverse filmmakers on screen, 2016 was a year fraught with violence against minorities from police and white supremacists and the advent of the Trump presidency. One of the reasons the Oscars are so significant is that winners are also considered based on the zeitgeist at the time (for example, Sean Penn won Best Actor for Milk in 2009 after California voted in Prop 8, which some considered an upset for Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler). My conclusion is that it would be entirely appropriate for a coming-of-age film about a poor, black and gay kid in Miami based in part on the biography of its extremely talented writer-director Barry Jenkins to take home some of the top awards as well. 

The Oscars is often unpredictable and is also very important in the national psyche. Though a recent poll showed that two-thirds of Americans couldn't name a single Best Picture nominee, 7-in-10 admitted that they will tune in for the awards. Therefore, who wins is very important. To pure film junkies, it's important that a new generation of young and talented filmmakers could have their lives changed tonight. For others, tonight is a chance for their struggles to be recognized by the Academy and therefore the country. Either way, in a year with so much originality and so many Millennials poised to take home the top awards, tonight has the potential to be life-changing for many. For these reasons, the night of Academy Awards is my favorite TV night of the year. So, let the Oscars begin!


  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • Hidden Figures
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight

WILL WIN: La La Land

COULD WIN: Moonlight

SHOULD WIN: Manchester by the Sea (my personal favorite)


  • Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
  • Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge 
  • Ryan Gosling - La La Land
  • Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
  • Denzel Washington - Fences

WILL WIN: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea

COULD WIN: Denzel Washington - Fences

SHOULD WIN: Casey Affleck (This category could go either way – Affleck gave a surprisingly powerful performance, but Denzel is Denzel, though he also already has two Oscars) 


  • Emma Stone - La La Land
  • Natalie Portman - Jackie 
  • Ruth Negga - Loving
  • Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Isabelle Huppert - Elle

WILL WIN: Isabelle Huppert - Elle

COULD WIN: Emma Stone - La La Land

DARK HORSE: Natalie Portman - Jackie

SHOULD WIN: Isabelle Huppert (I don't think it'll be Emma Stone, though just about everyone else thinks it will be. I think Isabelle Huppert gave the most riveting performance by far)


  • Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
  • Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea 
  • Dev Patel - Lion
  • Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals

WILL WIN: Dev Patel - Lion

COULD WIN: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

SHOULD WIN: Dev Patel (I'm bucking the expert opinions on this category and going with Patel, who was a far more integral in making Lion what is was than Mahershala Ali was in Moonlight, since the latter only appeared in the film for like 15 minutes)


  • Viola Davis - Fences
  • Naomie Harris - Moonlight
  • Nicole Kidman - Lion
  • Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
  • Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

WILL WIN: Viola Davis - Fences

COULD WIN: Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis (this is the only category I'm 99% sure about)


  • Denis Villeneuve - Arrival
  • Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge
  • Damien Chazelle - La La Land
  • Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
  • Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea

WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

COULD WIN: Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

SHOULD WIN: Damien Chazelle 


  • Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
  • Taylor Sheridan - Hell or High Water
  • Damien Chazelle - La La Land
  • Mike Mills - 20th Century Women
  • Efthymis Filippou & Yorgos Lanthimos - The Lobster

WILL WIN: Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea

COULD WIN: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

SHOULD WIN: Kenneth Lonergan

  • Luke Davies - Lion
  • Eric Heisserer - Arrival
  • Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
  • Theodore Melfi & Allison Schroeder - Hidden Figures
  • Fences - August Wilson
WILL WIN: Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

COULD WIN: August Williams - Fences

SHOULD WIN: Barry Jenkins - Moonlight